Title: North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water simulation and future projection

Journal: Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 34(3): 25-30.

Authors: Xia R. -B., Q. -Y. Liu*,L. -X. Xu, and Y. -Q. Lu

Abstract: The present climate simulation and future projection of the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW) in the North Pacific are investigated based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM2M). Spatial patterns of the mixed layer depth (MLD) in the eastern subtropical North Pacific and the ESTMW are well simulated using this model. Compared with historical simulation, the ESTMW is produced at lighter isopycnal surfaces and its total volume is decreased in the RCP8.5 runs, because the subduction rate of the ESTMW decreases by 0.82×10⁻⁶ m/s during February-March. In addition, it is found that the lateral induction decreasing is approximately four times more than the Ekman pumping, and thus it plays a dominant role in the decreased subduction rate associated with global warming. Moreover, the MLD during February-March is banded shoaling in response to global warming, extending northeastward from the east of the Hawaii Islands (20°N, 155°W) to the west coast of North America (30°N, 125°W), with a maximum shoaling of 50 m, and then leads to the lateral induction reduction. Meanwhile, the increased northeastward surface warm current to the east of Hawaii helps strengthen of the local upper ocean stratification and induces the banded shoaling MLD under warmer climate. This new finding indicates that the ocean surface currents play an important role in the response of the MLD and the ESTMW to global warming.